Inheritance

What does our next manager get?

When a new manager is in talks, one of the first questions he’ll want answered is simple:

What are they actually inheriting?

At first glance, the answer in terms of numbers appears encouraging.

We have a healthy bank balance, but we need to put that to one side as it appears no one in the club has a clue how to access it. There is a biscuit tin that we will put money in from player sales that they might get a look at. I guess it all comes down to how generous Dermot Desmond is feeling.

So, what about players. Players that will stay and are under contract for a few years, players that can be sold and players who we might have forgotten about because they were out on loan.

As things stand, Celtic have 30 first-team players available for next season. There are a number of players returning from loan spells and a squad profile that, on the surface, looks reasonably healthy.

There are also one-year options on Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (32) and Kelechi Iheanacho (29) that have yet to be triggered, so they aren’t included in these numbers.


Squad by age group:

Looking purely at age demographics, the squad appears to be in a okay spot.

21 or under: 2 players (6.7%)

22 to 25: 12 players (40%)

26 to 29: 14 players (46.7%)

30+: 2 players (6.7%)


I would like to see the weight of the percentages move towards the first 2 categories, but I’ve seen a lot worse.


Squad by contract expiry:

Likewise, contract lengths appear to provide a degree of stability.

Contracts expiring in 2027: 4 players (13.3%)

Contracts expiring in 2028: 9 players (30%)

Contracts expiring in 2029: 11 players (36.7%)

Contracts expiring in 2030: 6 players (20%)

On paper, this is close to the kind of profile most clubs would want or be reasonably happy with. The overwhelming majority of the squad sits between 22 and 29 years old, while most are tied down to medium and long-term contracts.

The main problem we have is that football isn’t played on paper, and just because we have 30 Celtic players doesn’t mean we have 30 quality players, far from it.

The moment you begin to look at who is actually likely to be here next season and consider what we know about players who have made their intentions to leave clear, the picture becomes grim and shows why our club is million miles away from being well run.

Among those expected to attract significant interest, or who have expressed a desire to leave are Daizen Maeda, Reo Hatate, Arne Engels, Paulo Bernardo, Luis Palma and possibly Maik Nawrocki.

That’s six players who could realistically depart before a ball is kicked in pre-season.

Then there is the second layer: players the club may actively seek to move on. Depending on the new manager’s plans, that could include players such as Shin Yamada, Hayato Inamura, Michel-Ange Balikwisha, Johnny Kenny and Adam Montgomery.

Suddenly, we’re talking about eleven potential departures from a squad of thirty.

That takes the number down to nineteen.

And that’s before considering the 3rd layer: other uncertainties.

Benjamin Nygren is already attracting interest despite only recently arriving. Nygren and players like Trusty and AJ are all at the World Cup, one of the biggest and best platforms in the game to generate interest in yourself. Callum McGregor continues to be linked with Saudi. Jota remains some distance from a return after injury and we’ve no idea what version of him we’ll get if / when he does return. Odin Holm is away until December.

This is why we have to have sense of reality about what lays ahead of us.

The issue isn’t necessarily the quality of the inheritance. There are still some good players in this squad. The issue is the volume of work required to reshape it.

Because if even half of those departures materialise, the incoming manager isn’t inheriting a settled squad. They’re inheriting a squad that will require significant surgery in a very short period of time. They will also likely have to do something we’ve been guilty of over recent seasons and hold on to players who want out until late in the window, or beyond it.

Recruitment at a club like ours should be all about managed evolution, pro-active adaptions and being ready and able to react only when something unexpected hits, with a focus on improving each year. Instead, this year is a repeat of what we had when Ange Postecoglou arrived, chaos, especially when you consider we are looking at it without any guidance that comes from a manager.

It doesn’t take Carol Vorderman to work out that the numbers could very quickly begin to look messy.

Nor does it take Monchi to recognise that the margin for error in recruitment becomes exceptionally small.

The inheritance may look healthy from a distance.

The closer you get and the closer you look, well…. you can form your own opinion on that and let me know in the comments.

RH


Note - Palma was still a Celtic player when I wrote this and created my graphics.