Simo and the Saints vs Brendan and the Bhoys

Ross H takes us through the forthcoming league match against the farmers from Perth

St.Johnstone are the test we need to pass this week to push us a little step closer to the league title.

A wee bit about The Saints

Now we could look at St.Johnstone and assume a great many things as a team who are bottom of the league. Many would assume they are horrible at everything and just a team who will park the bus and hit long balls and they might do that on Sunday, but in the limited bits I’ve seen including the recent defeat away to Hibs and some brief highlights of their last visit to Govan, they tried to get some control on the ball and play, it might not bode well to do that against us but I credit Simo Valakari for trying to get his team playing in a way that will improve them in the long term.

Unfortunately for them to date, Simo Valakari hasn’t got the results that they would have hoped for, but the football has improved in my opinion, and it can take time for the results to come when you are working on tight budgets with a small group. I hope they stick with it.

The saving grace and payout for them might come in the split where they’ll have 15 points to play for, and 3 of those teams they’ll face have only won 1 or 2 more games than they have as things stand, so they aren’t sunk yet. They might see this game in the way they’ll see the semi final against us in a few weeks. A free hit. They aren’t expected to win, so what is the harm in at least starting with positive intentions and seeing where it gets them. I doubt it, but given our recent poor starts to games they might give it a go.

As above they are trying to play a bit more, they are sat 5th in terms of possession in the league and defensively they are maybe suffering more than they should be on the data front, but as I’ll always tell you data doesn’t keep clean sheets and it doesn’t score goals. It’s just an indication of performance level. St.Johnstone in the league have scored 32 (11th) and conceded 57 (11th). Now the first part in terms of data is close, they actually rank 12th for xG (Expected Goals) but defensively they rank 5th for xGA (Expected Goals Against). The biggest issue I’ve noticed is they tend not to look all that dangerous, not getting enough bodies forward at speed, but I’d also say that in the few games I’ve seen of them, I’ve never thought they looked dire. They just appear to lack a little bit of creation and that edge in the final third and so if they don’t get a clean sheet they are in trouble. That is reflected in their wins going as far back as October where they’ve not won a game by more than 1 goal, and 5 of those 8 wins across all competitions have been 1-0.

The biggest defensive issue they are having in terms of trying to play in a more possession-based style is they are bottom of the pile for high recoveries against which will tell Valakari that he maybe needs one or two more guys who play in defensive roles that protect and pass the ball a bit better. Currently they are averaging over 6 high recoveries against per game in the league. If Maeda is a stats-man he’ll be licking his lips at that one.

In terms of their players, I like the look of Makenzie Kirk who is on loan from Heats, he has a good instinct up top and is the Saints top scorer. He certainly looks to get himself in dangerous positions and I think he could end up on double figures by the end of the season, but could have been there already if the Saints had a bit more of a creative spark in midfield.

The player who I’d consider as a likely problem is Adama Sidibeh. If could find some shooting boots he would be a real handful for most teams. His 6 goals across all domestic competitions, a poor return for a guy who has a lot of decent elements to his game when he’s on it. He has a good burst of pace, a good work ethic and what I call the hold up arse, where he uses his strength and his backside to keep players off the ball and then looks to lay it off or turn and drive forward. There are a few goals he’s scored for the Saints where you look and think if he could do that just a bit more often then he’d generate a decent amount of interest.

I pinpoint Sidibeh because he likes to drift off to the sides and for me that would be something I’d look to use if I was Simo Valakari. Our fullbacks like to push on and so the area where we are most vulnerable tends to be with balls into the channels, but the key is then getting bodies out of your own half to join him quickly, and that’s something they have struggled with. Now the other part is Sidibeh didn’t start in their last game vs Hibs, so who knows if he’ll actually start against us.

The other potential threats the Saints have are Graham Carey and Barry Douglas. At 35 Carey is not going to be beating anyone in a sprint over 30 yards. What Carey does still have is a left foot that can place a ball with real accuracy in open play, or from a set play. Barry Douglas is another player who can really make life difficult from set plays. So, in an ideal world we keep those to a minimum in our own defensive third. Not always something we can control, but I’m not going down that rabbit hole.

The Saints may lay at the bottom of the table and might look bad on paper, but for what they are they do have some quality in their team and like any opponent they have to be respected. Domestically the biggest issue we can suffer in a game like this is complacency.

The good wee bit - The Bhoys

If I’m honest I could try and write some mad technical spiel here but we all know what this game is and chances are barring any injuries that I’m unaware of at the time of writing I think we all expect the team to be as it was last week in the win versus Hearts. The only question will probably be Nawrocki or Trusty. Nawrocki got the nod last week, the more that happens the quicker that question disappears so we shall see what Brendan Rodgers chooses this week.

As I’ve mentioned above complacency is the biggest enemy. I don’t expect St.Johnstone to come at us all guns blazing, because they don’t have enough guns. I expect them to play a 451 or a 5311 and to try get a foot hold in the game and if we pen them in then they might look to play long balls into the channels for the strikers, but really what it will come down to is us just staying calm and composed. Keep the speed in the ball, look for rotations in our most dangerous areas down the sides and make good choices in the final third. I thought Kuhn looked sharp last week and it was interesting to see Engels involvement be a bit higher up the pitch and closer to Kuhn and AJ when we had control of the ball, well ahead of McGregor and Hatate who dove tailed each other to good effect at times, which is a good move as it makes teams question whether they want to pin an attacker right onto Cal and have them tracking him step for step. Jota has the skills to take players out of the game alone and we have that nice little trio down the right in Kuhn, Engels and AJ who all have the ability to create problems.

At the back we might need to see Carter-Vickers and whoever his partner is be willing to step out and into midfield if the game gets really stuffy, just to help create a few extra overloads but I think our front line have enough quality to ensure that we cause issues in the final third without having to bring every man and his dog forward.

Last but not least I want to really applaud Viljami Sinisalo, not for the saves he made versus Hearts. I expect those, that’s why he wears gloves. I’m giving him a big thumbs up for his command of his area and in his communication with his teammates. He wasn’t shy in letting them hear his voice and that for me was a massive tick on his file, and the clean sheet was more than welcome as well. It would be great to see him double that clean sheet tally on Sunday and keep pushing to make himself undroppable.

Conkers Cushion (my daughter misheard me when I said conclusion to myself)

What I am hoping to see from us is a positive start. In recent times our starts to games have been a bit slow and we’ve given up some cheap chances. The last league game that we started with a good element of control was versus Dundee United back in February. Last week we got the win and clean sheet that I hoped for, this week I’d like to see us just go out with an intensity from the first minute, get another clean sheet and put on a bit of show for what will be like a home game away from home, with 3 stands packed with Hoops supporters. Well done to the St.Johnstone board for allowing that. It's not ideal for them but given how things are it is a gesture that I’m sure all of our travelling supporters appreciate. Hopefully the additional monies made help St.Johnstone moving forward.

As you will know by now, I don’t make predictions, we won 6-0 on our last visit to Perth, I’d happily take the same, but in the end, I just hope that we go give a good account of ourselves, get a win and then hit the Kilmarnock game on a positive note, maybe with the potential to seal the title at home.