Margins
Another weekend where the margins got a bit slimmer....
Yesterday, the game finished and I like many of you felt, filled with a great deal of joy. Coming back from 2 down away from home is nice against pretty much anyone, against our biggest rivals…. It’s 20x better.
However, there is a harsh reality for us. It’s 1 point in a weekend where Hearts secured 3, and the margin for error is now significantly lower than it was on Friday.
So what is the state of play….
Max Points available to the top 6:
Hearts – 90
*Celtic – 85
Rangers – 84
*Motherwell – 83
Hibs – 73
Falkirk – 69
*Teams have 10 games left to play. The rest have 9.
League fixtures left before the split for the top 4:
Hearts
Rangers
Celtic
Motherwell
What will win it and what is the margin for error?
The reality for me is this. I think 80 to 81 points is the marker, and I would include goal difference as part of that. I think 82+ absolutely seals it for anyone given that we have the split where everyone plays each other, and this is a split where we will see some hard fought games with very few bankers based on the form of the teams involved.
We can obviously rule out Hibs and Falkirk for the title, but I’ve no doubt they’ll play a part in shaping the title race because both teams are capable of beating all 4 teams who still have a chance. Falkirk especially deserve a huge amount of credit for what they’ve shown this season as the newly promoted team. They like Motherwell have played some really good stuff and have some players who should be well and truly in the running for team of the season.
Motherwell max out at 83 points and 9 of the 10 they play between now and the end of the season are against top 6 opponents. That is a tough ask, especially with a 2 point margin for error, but they’ve been on an amazing run of form and deserve all the plaudits they are getting.
Rangers can hit 84 points, so have a 3 point margin for error. They’ve struggled to get wins away from home this season, and yesterday will have been a bitter pill to swallow for them and John Beaton. They’ve got St. Mirren and Falkirk away before the split and then after it us, Hearts and one of the other 3 for a 3rd away visit this season.
Hearts currently lead the table and have the goal difference advantage, and with that the biggest margin for error. 9 points if they can keep the goal difference advantage. I believe are meant to have 2 at home and 3 away in the split, which will likely end up with Rangers at home and then us and Hibs away, and they’ll need to work out the other fixtures (Well spotted Mr Ryan).
Then there is us. Our margin for error is 4 points, and that requires us to start banging in some goals to bridge the gap that exists.
Right now, I just don’t know if we have a team capable of winning 26 points from the 30 available with 7 of our final 10 games being against top 6 sides, and with the environment being what it is. I’m living in a head space of hope over expectation if I’m being honest because I don’t look at Celtic with green tinted specs on, but if anyone can do it, Martin O’Neill can.
The Split and Differences
This season the split makes the league look really exciting from a neutrals point of view. However, it always causes debate and raises questions when the fixtures are announced and the images above will explain why, along with comments below this article.
The one thing that stands in our favour is that we are due 3 home games after the split that include Hearts, Rangers and then one of the other 3 coming to CP for the 3rd time this season.
However, many would rightly question whether this is actually an advantage for us as things stand. When players, both ours and opposition, are openly saying the current situation with the supporter lockout makes Celtic Park an easier place to come and play, that should set alarm bells ringing. It has to stop, and it has to stop now. I’m past caring about the rights and wrongs, just get it sorted….
So, the question for Brian Wilson and the board is simple: do they want to help the team, who have been clear they want a positive resolution and a stadium fully behind them, or do they want to hinder them by keeping supporters locked out?
Given the margin for error is so slim, the answer should be obvious if the objective is to win this league. The players matter more than the men in the heated seats. Always.
Pull the covers down. Open the gates. Get everything bar putting the team first to one side, and deal with whatever issues remain when the season is finished. And maybe by then there will be people willing to behave like adults and have the conversations needed to move things forward in a positive manner.
Unknown
What we don’t know in all of this is how the SPFL will schedule the split. What hat will they put on?
A safety first one guided by politicians who are always in a rush to tell us all football fans are monsters and cannot be trusted, or will they risk a last day shootout for the title by scheduling 1st vs 2nd on the last day.
Commercially they’d be mad not to try and set it up for a last day shootout, or at least the final 2 weeks. Whether it actually pans out is another thing, it could be over before then, but if it’s possible and they turn down that chance to have 1st vs 2nd in a winner takes all match in the last 2 weeks of the season then it will show how stupid and spineless they are.
Who will win it?
I could be totally wrong about the points total and margin for error, but whatever it ends up as, I still think it’s between us and Hearts, who for me are favs.
We are going to need the performance from the 50th minute until the penalty was scored yesterday to become our standard from now until the end of the season. No more 30 to 45 minute performances, no more stupid actions that give refs or VAR officials decisions to make and no more daft decisions and risks in our own half when teams have us penned in our defensive third and we need to beat Hearts and Rangers at home after the split to put pressure on Hearts, and to force Rangers to fear dropping into 4th place.
However, the reality is that Hearts are the favourites, and the title is theirs to lose at this stage.
People can say all they want about them being bang average or a set piece team, but I don’t think any of their fans will care and rightly so because they last won a league in the 1959/1960 season. If we had went that long without a title win, I don’t think any of us would care how the league was won.
For me they’ve been the best team in the league this season to date because they’ve won more games and scored more goals than anyone else, sometimes it is that simple, but at the same time… to date they’ve won nothing. Being ahead after 29 games doesn’t mean anything if you don’t get over the line first.
The question for them now isn’t whether they can win games, they’ve proved they can do that, it’s whether they can win the games that will start to feel very different as each week passes by. The ones where nervous energy starts to kick in and expectations grow and grow, replacing momentum, and all of a sudden the bum hole starts to twitch and you have that annoying song from the advert playing over and over in your dreams “When you have nausea, heartburn, indegestion, upset stomach…… diarrheaaaaaa”.
Sorry
The ones where protecting something matters more than proving something and you start to think the world is against you. All it takes is for one person to lose their head, crap their pants and breakdown in the heat of a moment…. and all of a sudden everything can change.
Leading a race is one thing.
Finishing it is another….
Whoever gets over the line first will deserve it, because the points accumulated over 38 games, 3420+ minutes on the pitch. That is the measurement for all 12 teams and when all is said and done the record books that really matter show who finished 1st, not how many corners they scored from.
Ross H
Letting all fans back in: unfortunately the Board have no idea about The Rule of Holes
I've added a few images showing results and home vs away split for the top 6 and points won to date.