Dundee United Match Preview - Party Time?
Ross H previews the game that could see Celtic win 4IAR
Dundee Utd (4th) vs Celtic (1st) – Party Time?
Saturday, 12.30pm – Tannadice
1 point needed, 3 points required
I always like hearing players send that message. Liam Scales sent the message. Cal sent the message. Seal the title with a win.
Our results in the league vs Dundee Utd this season:
22nd Dec: 0-0 (away)
8th Jan: 2-0 (home) – Goals: Maeda and Hatate
15th Feb: 3-0 (home) – Goals: McGregor, Jota and Idah
So, what will we face?
A wee bit about Dundee United
I’ll be honest. I did a wee scouting mission at the very start of the season for my own club – Falkirk vs Dundee United in the League Cup group stages. On that showing, I wouldn’t have put a single penny on Dundee United making the top six. They looked like relegation candidates. Falkirk won 2-0, should’ve been 3 or 4, and it wasn’t just the goals – it was the performance. United were awful. Couldn’t string two passes together, and the defensive and attacking shapes were a mess. Looked like they’d been drawn up by my wee boy after he’d had too much sugar.
Fast forward nine months and what we’ve got is a top six team on a run of three wins, all by a 1-0 scoreline (Ross County and Hearts away, St Johnstone at home).
It’s difficult to predict what setup we’ll see from Jim Goodwin. He often likes a back three and to use Ryan Strain and Will Ferry for width in the wing-back roles, but against us this season we’ve mostly seen him go with a back four. He’s then put players like Middleton and Fotheringham or Trapanovski on the wings ahead of the full-backs and looked to those areas for creative joy.
What we know about Dundee Utd from the league’s data rankings:
8th in possession (average of 44.68%)
6th in xG (Expected Goals)
8th in xGA (Expected Goals Against)
7th in xG from set pieces
4th in xGA from set pieces
And to show they’re performing above a lot of the data, here's where they top the table:
1st in expected points – they’re six points above the model’s expectations.
But that’s paper. That’s numbers. They don’t win or lose games. Players do that.
And Dundee Utd have a few threats. The width from Ferry (4 assists) and Strain (3 assists), and big Sam Dalby – who’s been an excellent loan signing from Wrexham. Fourteen league goals and two assists so far this season. No secret he’s a power forward, happy to get in amongst it in the box. All of his goals have come inside the 18-yard box, including seven headers. His conversion rate’s a very respectable 25%, with 55% of his shots on target. He’s effective when given the chances, and CCV and Scales will need to keep him locked down. Our wide players also need to minimise the chances for Strain and Ferry to get their heads up and pick out crosses for the big fella.
I don’t expect Dundee Utd to open up and play expansive football. I fully expect them to keep a narrow shape, invite us to cross – like they did last time – and then, when they get any control, look for the width and any chance from within 30 yards to get crosses into our box and place Dalby in areas where he can attack the ball.
Stats from our last league game at Tannadice:
I wouldn’t be shocked if the stats from tomorrow turn out to be similar, but what we do need to be is much better at testing and beating the goalkeeper.
The best bit – the bit about us…
Short and sweet from me. Same team that’s scored 10 goals in our last two games should start, IMO.
Start the game with intensity. Start the game with the desire to show the best version of ourselves and put on a performance that shows why we deserve to win this title.
The midfield rotations from recent games will be key to unlocking any narrow defence. Look for passes inside the full-backs for Maeda and Forrest to run onto. Underlaps from Taylor. A nice mix of over- and underlaps from AJ, helping open up spaces or offering options for Cal, Arne and Reo to find.
And I want to see the guy we’d have a boozy night out with (a cheap one – he’s clearly an amateur), Big Adam Idah, making those short, sharp movements between the posts. Get back to what he does best: head up, looking at goal, quick movements, sharp touches, and getting early shots off as often as possible.
It might well be that if the game drags on and Utd stay compact, breaking them down becomes difficult. If so, we’ve got a bench we can turn to with confidence. Jota and Kuhn will hopefully be chomping at the bit to put down markers for the cup final, and McCowan can be handy in those compact spaces in and around the box.
Overall, man for man, and given the goal hauls we’ve racked up in the last two games, I’m confident we’re in a good place to go and finish the job. I don’t expect Dundee Utd to make it easy, but if we approach the game the right way – with speed, controlled aggression, and letting our players show their quality – then we’ll give ourselves a fantastic chance of putting on the show we all want to see.
And hopefully, a celebration we’re all patiently waiting to kick off around 2.20pm.
All being well, the next podcast should be very cheerful.
RH