Celtic v Kilmarnock Match Preview

Ross H anticipates the visit from the Ayrshire men

Bits and Bobs

• Last 10 games between the sides: 7 Celtic wins / 1 Draw / 2 Kilmarnock wins

• We have won 3 of our last 4 at home in the league with an aggregate score of 13-4

• Killie have lost the last 4 away games in the league 10-3

• Last League game vs Killie at CP in the league ended 4-0 with goals from Hatate, Scales, Kuhn and Ralston

A wee bit about Killie

Killie come into this game off the back of a fairly comfortable home win against Motherwell. A tough game to judge after Motherwell had a player sent off after 26 minutes, a red card that was later rescinded (shock horror that VAR “specialist” Andrew Dallas could turn a natural contact into a sending off).

In the game Killie put a real emphasis on playing on their left side with Fraser Murray, Corrie Ndaba looking to link often. On the other side they have the menace that is Danny Armstrong, who is always busy and where possible very direct in his play, but not only does the red card make the game tough to judge when looking to Saturday, the line up wasn’t what I’d expect to see vs us either. Subs Marley Watkins and Kyle Vassell are both players who Derek McInnes usually starts in games where he expects to be up against it, using them as his out ball and to add that extra bit of physicality for set plays both in attack and defence.

This season has been pretty poor for Kilmarnock, maybe picking 2 teams has taken a toll on Derek McInnes. They’ve only won back-to-back games in the league twice which tells a tale of inconsistency. With 37 goals in 32 games, it’s easy to see they are not heavy goal scorers and if you have seen any Derek McInnes side then you know what to expect. They’ll be aggressive, they’ll look for the fastest route up the pitch and like many teams we face they’ll play for set pieces and second balls as high up the pitch as possible. I just hope our defence has learned it’s lesson from last week.

When you look at their season the data generally points to them being where they are. Expected points are down by 0.4 so nothing significant there. They aren’t a team who are heavy on keeping possession with an average of around 46% over the season to date which ranks 6th in the league. xG and xA and xGA are all middle of the road, but the differences between Killie and the rest is not significant enough to say they are better than those above them. They are only 4 points behind Hearts in 6th and 6 points and 1 win better off than St.Johnstone who are rock bottom.

The danger men in terms of the numbers are Bruce Armstrong (ex-Livingston) with 9 league goals and Danny Armstrong with 5 assists. On paper they’d need Stretch Armstrong to pull them up a long way to have a chance against us, but football isn’t played on paper and we are a team who have shown weakness of late. With that in mind I expect Derek McInnes to follow a fairly common blueprint for him. He’ll pick a side with a view to making the game as physical as possible. Look to contain McGregor as much as he can and they’ll look to play direct. If they go with the smaller strikers then it’ll be balls into the channels, if it’s Watkins and Vassell then they’ll be happy to play on the toes of Carter-Vickers and Trusty if needed and try to win the physical challenges or buy a few free kicks.

In terms of setup. I think we’ll see the usual back 3 with Ndaba and Armstrong dropping back in to make it a 5 at times. Then I expect them to match up man for man in midfield with a 3, with 2 attackers trying to block the lanes from defence into McGregor as much as they can.

We have seen ourselves linked with Bobby Wales (pictured above) and it’ll be interesting to see if he starts and if so how McInnes uses him. His 3 goals and 2 assists this season in the league are ok for the number of starts (12), but what stands out is that he also has 6 high value chances created, which have fallen into the pit of poor finishing that Killie have displayed for most of the season.

Areas of weakness in the McInnes setup

Killie are the top of the pops for high recoveries and only 9th for high recoveries of their own. So, playing out from the back at speed to allow us to get pressure high up the pitch will help. The attacking trio and the midfield need to press better than they have of late, especially against a defence that doesn’t like being pressured on the ball, and it’s easy to say but we need to find the shooting boots that were left on the bus last week.

The good bit: The bit about the Bhoys

Let’s be honest it’s been a long week after the loss to St.Johnstone and right now no matter what media you follow that has Celtic at the core there are more questions than answers about this weekend.

We’ve had it on here with discussion on Schlupp vs Taylor. Many are questioning the desire of Nicolas Kuhn. Then you have debates over who should partner Carter-Vickers and some have even said they feel he needs a game or two on the bench, and the rest. I think the only name who didn’t get added to the bump him on the bench list this week was Sinisalo.

Brendan Rodgers comments last week suggest he has probably been having the same debates with his staff, and I guess we will find out in his presser how he feels about that having had a good few days to make his feelings clear on the training pitch.

If I’m honest I don’t know what to expect from us vs Killie and that in itself bothers me, a better start would be a start, and for us to play the game in a manner that shows everyone this team wants to end the season with a series of knockout performances and not just crawl over the line.

Many have mentioned tactics this week and while I would like to see us be a bit more flexible in our system, both in attack and defence. I don’t think that will happen this late on in the season, so 433 it is. What I would like to see is for us to move the ball forward with a bit more speed, even if that means playing with a bit more risk when it comes to turning over the ball. We have an attacking group that is loaded with good pace, so let’s give them chances to use it.

In attack. Yang looks to be a doubt after a heavy knock to his arm last week. I don’t think Kuhn can start after the lack of effort last week. That brings us down to Forrest, Jota, Maeda and Idah. I’d say Johnny Kenny but after his 5 mins off the bench vs Dundee Utd back in February he hasn’t seen a second of action. Disappointing given that he had come back and in theory would have been full of confidence and raring to go after his European exploits, but he’s been stuck in the freezer and probably wishes the club had continued to be no contact like they had been through most of his loan spell in Ireland. Leaving him to try and help Shamrock Rovers in the Conference League, maybe they’d be playing Chelsea instead of Legia if he had still been involved. One thing is for sure, even with Shamrock being in the off season from Christmas to February, he would have still played significantly more minutes for them if he had stayed there, and probably been of more value to us in the summer window.

The midfield, we have the 5 senior players fit. It might be the week Rodgers chooses to freshen it up a little, with Killie liable to play deeper and compact. McCowan might be a good option as he has shown himself as capable with shots from distance, and he is good at finding pockets in and around the 10 area. Alternatively, we could look to Bernardo and his industry to go into one of the 8 roles. Personally, I don’t think this is the game to pull Engels so I’d leave it be this week but make it clear to all 3 that if they aren’t at it, then another set of halftime subs could see them join Kuhn and Schlupp in the dog house.

The defence is the one area for me that absolutely has to change, yet it’s the one I would usually look to last as I believe consistency in that area is key. However, I think injuries, volume of games and players playing in roles they haven’t been in for a long time are causing us issues. Players slowing the game down, giving away cheap free kicks or just looking a yard off of it. So that is reflected in the line up I’d like to see below. Schlupp, like Kuhn for me cannot start tomorrow. AJ, I think is running on fumes and Scales I think deals with physicality better than any of those competing with him for that role.

As per usual, no predictions from me. I just want a strong start, for our players to express themselves in a positive way and for us to have 3 points on the board at the full-time whistle.

As always, I hope you all enjoyed this and please feel free to let me know in the Substack chat, or in the comments section below what line up you would like to see and any thoughts or predictions for the game.